Current news on aviation is dire. British Airways have announced a possible 12000 redundancies will be taking place and now it is looking like Gatwick will lose all BA activity and BA are telling us that it may not start up again. The job reductions include significant numbers of pilots and co-pilots. We have talked about what happens to them before; if they stop flying they would have to re-activate their validations before they can carry passengers and this is going to come at great cost.

 

This is happening because of the collapse in aviation and the company needs to consolidate its activities – it is all about survival. In the case of BA this is also regarded as a significant political move which is likely to see weaker carriers simply drop out of the market.

 

The general view now is that it will be years before aviation gets back to pre Covid-19 levels – in fact will it ever get back to that level? It is now believed that 660000 jobs have effectively been lost in aviation overall in Britain. That is a massive additional burden to bring to the exchequer.

 

There are fears too for Jet2 which is set to announce cost cutting measures next week. As we know other airlines like Easyjet and Ryanair have already suspended flight operations.

 

Is there really going to be a third runway at Heathrow within the next decade? We must remember that it is not just British companies which use Heathrow – it is going to be affected by aviation world-wide and there will almost certainly be many companies going to the wall.

 

All this will impact on people’s holidays, not just now but in the future. It is questionable as to how practicable holidays abroad will be this year. All depends on the progress of the virus and whether it can be contained. Containing it in one country will by no means mean that it is contained everywhere else. I suspect overseas holidays are going to be cut right back and with the lack of capacity, probably fares are going to escalate substantially. So that hoped for trip to San Francisco or other distant venue may have to be put off for some time.

 

And what will this mean for your avios or other air mile balances with different airlines? If a company goes down, these are likely to be lost.

 

There is of course the significant benefit that the emissions into the atmosphere have dropped hugely and it is quite possible that there will be pressure for that to continue. Not everyone wants loads of aviation.

 

However the present status may be good for staycation. If the lockdown can be lifted in the UK there may still be a tail-end holiday season assuming the hospitality trade has managed to keep itself going. The Prime Minister says that proposals are likely to be published next week. But I would not book anything just yet.

 

Adrian Leopard 30-04-20

 

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